Official customs data released on September 8 showed that exports reached $401.44 billion in August, a 25.0% year-on-year increase, up from a 23.9% gain in the prior month. Imports totaled $282.36 billion, rising 28.2% year-on-year compared to the 27.6% increase recorded in July. The trade surplus widened to $119.09 billion in August from $112.34 billion the previous month.

The pickup in export growth was driven by three key factors. First, surging demand from the AI industry — the global semiconductor sector continues to experience a strong upcycle, fueling rapid export growth in integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment. Second, the substitution effect of new energy in response to energy shocks — China's rapidly expanding new energy sector is displacing oil and gas, keeping exports of related products on a solid growth trajectory. Third, a low base effect — the export growth rate in August 2025 was just 4.23%, one of the lowest readings for that month in five years.

Import growth remained robust in August, supported by several dynamics. The AI boom also lifted import demand, with imports of automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, high-tech products, and mechanical and electrical products surging 209.1%, 83.6%, 68.7%, and 51.7% year-on-year, respectively. Import prices stayed elevated across the board, as recurring tensions in the Middle East kept commodity prices high. For example, while copper ore and coal import volumes fell 9.1% and 1.5% year-on-year, their import values climbed 24.7% and 48.6%, respectively, due to higher prices. Additionally, the low base effect played a role — affected by US tariffs, imports in August 2025 stood at $220.3 billion, the lowest for that month in five years.

By region, ASEAN and the EU were the main pillars of support, while trade with the US continued to improve. Exports to ASEAN rose 30.2% year-on-year, accounting for 18.5% of total exports, while imports from the bloc increased 35.0%, representing 15.7% of total imports. Exports to the EU grew 6.6%, making up 13.7% of the total, while imports from the EU swung from negative to positive growth at 0.7%, accounting for 8.1%. Exports to the US jumped 34.4%, representing 10.6% of the total, and imports from the US expanded 17.8%, comprising 4.7%.

By product category, high-tech and mechanical/electrical goods continued to post strong export growth, while labor-intensive products saw a rebound in momentum. In August, high-tech product exports climbed 56.9% year-on-year, and mechanical and electrical product exports rose 32.8%, with integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment surging 129.8% and 76.5%, respectively. Automobile exports grew 43.0%, with new energy vehicles continuing to perform well amid energy supply shocks. Exports of mobile phones, audio and video equipment, home appliances, and lighting fixtures all accelerated at varying rates. Among labor-intensive goods, luggage, clothing, footwear, and furniture exports showed faster growth, while toy exports turned positive after prior declines. On the import side, automatic data processing equipment, high-tech products, and integrated circuits grew 209.1%, 68.7%, and 83.6% year-on-year, respectively, while imports of automobiles and medical devices declined.

Looking ahead, we expect import and export growth to maintain resilience with a modest pullback. Four factors underpin this resilience. First, the structural boom driven by the AI technology cycle is set to continue, with semiconductors and related high-tech products supporting trade data. Second, energy price increases stemming from US-Iran tensions are likely to persist, providing price-side support to trade growth. Third, China's abundant alternative energy sources and stable industrial production should help offset the negative impact of energy shocks on exports. Fourth, the country continues to diversify its foreign trade markets. At the same time, growth faces downward pressure from two potential drags. Trade friction risks extend beyond US-China tensions to include EU-China disputes — the US is proposing an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods citing "overcapacity," while Chinese tires, steel, aluminum, solar glass, hardwood plywood, cross-border e-commerce platforms, and agricultural products all face tightening EU trade policies. Additionally, the global precautionary inventory restocking triggered by US-Iran conflicts and trade policy uncertainty in the first half of the year has largely run its course, meaning new cargo volumes in the second half are likely to return to normal levels and the short-term boost from restocking cycles will fade. We also note that trade momentum is heavily concentrated in the AI supply chain, while demand for general goods tied to the traditional economy remains weak — broader domestic demand recovery still requires policy support.

Risks to watch include recurring geopolitical events, weaker-than-expected overseas demand, and macroeconomic policy falling short of expectations.