Renowned financial journalist Mark Gurman suggests that Apple (AAPL.US) has the potential to transform the still-experimental foldable phone category into an industry standard with its inaugural foldable iPhone. He describes the device, dubbed the iPhone Duo, as one of the most impactful products in Apple's history, ranking just behind the iMac, iPod, iPad, and Apple Watch in significance.

Although foldable smartphones have been on the market for years, Gurman believes that Apple's ability to integrate software, materials, and durability gives it a stronger opportunity to win over mainstream consumers. The device, with a starting price of $1,999, is also viewed as a significant opening move for Apple's new CEO, John Ternus. Gurman notes that former CEO Tim Cook had the chance to launch the product before transitioning to executive chairman, but ultimately chose to let his successor take the spotlight.

Gurman argues that rather than replacing the iPhone with AR glasses or AI wearables, Apple has opted to reimagine the smartphone itself. AI assistants may handle messaging, scheduling, research, email, and calls in the future, but consumers will still require a powerful device with a sufficiently large display for reading, gaming, photography, and video conferencing. This makes foldable phones a potential bridge between smartphones and tablets, with their expansive screens even capable of substituting for laptops in certain daily tasks.

Apple appears to have identified a clear purpose for the Duo from the outset, emphasizing video, gaming, and photography with features tailored to the foldable form factor. The second screen can function as a camera viewfinder or FaceTime monitor, and it also supports expanded widgets and a standless upright mode. Gurman draws comparisons to the Vision Pro, which, despite its advanced technology, saw limited consumer appeal due to its high price and proved to be a commercial disappointment. Similarly, the Apple Watch struggled initially to find its identity before being repositioned around health and fitness.

Foldable devices currently account for roughly 2% of global smartphone shipments, even though Samsung introduced the Galaxy Fold seven years ago. Gurman projects that within a decade, foldables will represent the majority of new phone sales, and the iPhone Duo could emerge as the leading foldable model as early as next year. Demand might result in significant shortages and elevated prices in the secondary market, with some buyers potentially purchasing the device in the U.S. and reselling it in countries where Apple sets higher pricing.

That said, this transition is expected to be more gradual than the shift from feature phones to smartphones. The primary obstacle is cost: at $1,999, the Duo prices above two standard iPhones combined. Gurman anticipates this barrier will erode as component expenses decline and Apple expands its device leasing programs outside the U.S., with monthly payments potentially becoming more important to consumers than the device's full price.

Apple may not stop at a single foldable phone. Gurman believes a complete family of foldable iPhones could eventually emerge, including a larger Duo Max and more affordable variants like the Duo SE or Duo mini. The Duo naming offers greater scalability compared to the internal codename "iPhone Ultra" that Apple had considered.

Apple may not dominate the foldable market permanently. Gurman expects the Duo's role to resemble that of the original iPhone: establishing a product format that competitors subsequently adopt and refine. For Apple and its investors, the larger opportunity extends beyond selling premium hardware. If Gurman's projections hold, the Duo could usher in an extended replacement cycle, create a new high-priced iPhone tier, and revitalize a global smartphone market that has struggled to offer compelling reasons for consumers to upgrade.