In September, the A-share market enters an earnings vacuum period, while overseas geopolitical risk events remain frequent, raising external uncertainty. Against the complex backdrop of intertwined global macro changes, will the A-share "golden autumn rally" continue to unfold, or will its pace shift? Where might investment opportunities quietly emerge? Recently, equity fund managers at Great Wall Fund shared their latest perspectives.

Yang Jianhua: Focus on Interim Report Opportunities

On the domestic front, the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August came in at 49.8, recovering slightly month-on-month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 49%, flat from the previous month, indicating some improvement in the domestic economy. September may not be the time for intensified aggregate policy measures. Overseas, the dollar has weakened due to renewed concerns over US Treasury creditworthiness, with geopolitical risks continuing to influence oil prices. Ahead of the September China-US summit, the external environment is likely to remain broadly stable. Meanwhile, lingering concerns over AI-related sector earnings prospects, coupled with increasing pressure for Fed rate hikes and a rising probability of further tightening, suggest that various sectors face intensifying contradictions. The market is likely to maintain a range-bound pattern until new narratives emerge. In this context, sectors and individual stocks positioned at low levels with improving fundamentals and attractive valuations offer favorable risk-reward, particularly those showing signs of improvement in interim results.

Liao Hanbo: Focus on Marginal Changes in AI Applications

The market is currently in a window without a clear dominant theme, with AI hardware continuing to trade in ranges while other industries may present oversold rebound opportunities. As AI hardware investment enters its mid-to-late stages, logical narratives are diverging, and future growth will require more application breakthroughs to support hardware investment. Declining unit computing costs provide a foundation for AI application proliferation, though aside from coding, other application scales remain modest. Key areas to watch include technological advancement opportunities in AI hardware and marginal changes in AI applications.

Tan Xiaobing: Repair Rally Not Yet Complete

Domestically, China's PMI recovered from 49.2 in July to 49.8 in August, signaling marginal improvement in economic activity. Overseas, the situation is more complex: US Treasury yields continue to climb, raising September rate hike probabilities, while recurring Middle East tensions keep oil prices elevated. Synchronized global central bank tightening and stagflation concerns weigh on global capital markets. Overall, we believe the market repair rally has not concluded, but after August's recovery, the market is likely to experience an upward grind, potentially shifting from broad-based gains to structural diffusion. Structurally, we prefer sectors where earnings growth could accelerate in the third quarter.

Long Yufei: Continued Focus on New Medical Technologies

In August, market style continued shifting toward balance, but with macro-sensitive assets still showing weak fundamentals and technology sectors facing high positioning and crowded holdings despite solid momentum, the market increasingly favored dividend-paying assets for rebalancing. We expect short-term market fluctuations between rebalancing and technology rebounds until a major inflection occurs in AI or macro narratives. Setting aside short-term volatility, from an industry logic perspective, AI model capabilities and computing infrastructure investment continue to exceed expectations, indicating that this AI revolution's empowerment across various sectors is inevitable. Future demand for health and upgrades in medical technology supply hold stronger potential with vast room for growth, prompting our continued focus on new medical technology.

Liang Furui: Focus on High-Quality Innovative Drug Companies

The pharmaceutical industry's earnings and industrial trends are increasingly concentrated in innovative drugs and their supply chains, primarily driven by overseas incremental markets, with industry dynamics showing head-company consolidation and widening divergence. The innovative drug sector is slowly exhibiting convergence in oncology indications while chronic diseases flourish across multiple fronts, potentially entering a harvesting period for overseas innovative drug sales royalties by 2027. CXO (especially backend CDMO) is gradually entering a phase where manufacturing-driven profits outpace revenue growth. With the market in the mid-to-late rebalancing stage, consensus expectations on quality companies are strengthening, and we will increasingly focus on medium-term certainty.

Chen Ziyang: Market Style Likely Balanced

Rising US Treasury yields are suppressing market risk appetite. A turning point in rates may require visibly deteriorating US employment, significantly lower oil prices, declining inflation, or Fed rate cuts; otherwise, market volatility may remain elevated until these factors materialize. Looking ahead, we expect relatively balanced market style, with focus areas including precious metals, copper, energy, petrochemicals, and upstream AI sectors, seeking stocks with reasonable valuations and solid logic.

Zhang Jian: Focus on Going-Out and Dividend Assets

Overseas, the Fed may raise rates, but likely as a precautionary move or symbolic action to maintain credibility, temporarily suppressing risk appetite without major impacts on technology sectors or the overseas economy. Looking ahead, one focus is on going-out assets where earnings may consistently beat expectations; another is dividend assets, which may present income opportunities during pullbacks.

Su Junyan: Seize Sector High-Low Rotation Opportunities

My stance on September's market is mildly neutral. While index levels are not high, increasing international market risks—mainly Middle East conflicts and major central bank rate hike expectations—limit expectations for a second rebound's height. Short-term market volatility is likely to persist with rapid rotation, prompting our continued focus on balanced strategies, caution toward high-positioned sectors, and seizing high-low rotation opportunities.

Lin Hao: Focus on AI Technology, Nonferrous Metals, and Pharmaceuticals

Key areas requiring close monitoring include: 1) Catalysts in the AI industry chain, including major model iterations, expansion into new application domains, updates from various model providers, and cloud company debt issuance; 2) Progress in China-US summit meetings; 3) Impact of Middle East conflicts on oil prices and commodities; 4) Major domestic and overseas IPOs and Hong Kong stock unlock situations. In terms of direction, China-US competition is a protracted tug-of-war, and trends toward autonomous controllability and resource value re-rating may continue. We expect A-share equity markets to continue grinding upward this year with sustained structural opportunities, focusing primarily on AI-related technology growth directions, as well as nonferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and brokerage sectors.

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