Many consumers are currently watching handset prices with uncertainty, wondering when the prolonged increase will finally come to an end. Rather than relying on institutional forecasts or specific timeline predictions, there are three concrete, reliable indicators that can signal a genuine shift in the market.
The first and most upstream signal comes from memory contract prices. The root cause of this price hike lies in the AI-driven scramble for production capacity, as Samsung and SK Hynix have redirected over 70% of their advanced manufacturing lines toward HBM high-bandwidth memory. This has naturally tightened the supply of DRAM and NAND chips used in smartphones. During the first half of 2026, spot prices for mobile memory chips surged by more than 300% cumulatively, pushing the procurement cost of a 12GB+256GB chipset package from roughly 500 yuan to around 2,200 yuan. As a result, memory costs have jumped from 10% to over 30% of the total bill of materials. The key is to watch for two consecutive quarters of sequential decline in memory contract prices. Only a sustained, trend-based drop—rather than a single quarter of weakness—would indicate that upstream supply and demand are truly loosening, allowing cost pressure to ease down to the consumer end.
The second signal involves the capacity structure. Currently, AI orders have locked up the majority of memory fabs' production, with less than 30% of advanced process capacity allocated to mobile devices. If the share of memory capacity dedicated to smartphones can rebound to above 50%, it would signal that AI's suction effect on supply is genuinely diminishing and that consumer-grade availability is no longer being squeezed. This shift cannot be verified through corporate statements alone; it requires concrete evidence from capacity allocation data disclosed in quarterly earnings reports.
The third signal is the most direct: look at new product pricing. If the starting price for the same configuration of a next-generation flagship falls back to the launch price range of its predecessor, that represents a real price cut. Be cautious not to be misled by promotional discounts on older models during major sales events like 618 or Double 11—these are short-term marketing tactics, not indicators of a cost inflection point. A genuine downward trend requires that new flagship launch prices hold steady without jumping higher.
As for whether to buy now, it depends on whether you are an urgent buyer or a patient bargain hunter. If your current phone is lagging so badly that it affects daily use, do not hold out for a price drop. Prices are likely to remain elevated through the first half of 2027, so it is better to purchase sooner and enjoy the benefits. When choosing a device, prioritize last year's flagship models. A flagship that has been on the market for about six months typically offers far better camera performance, display quality, and build craftsmanship than a new mid-range phone at the same price point, especially when combined with trade-in subsidies, delivering excellent value.
If your current phone still runs smoothly, spending just 200 to 300 yuan on an official battery replacement can extend its life for another two to three years, making a new purchase entirely unnecessary. In essence, this price surge is not a deliberate move by manufacturers, but rather a phase-based result of the AI industry restructuring the semiconductor supply chain. Once all three signals align, that will be the right time to consider upgrading to a new device.