Jefferies Maintains Neutral Stance on Macau Gaming Stocks, Projects 9% Revenue Growth for September

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Jefferies has released a research report indicating that during the first six days through September 6, Macau's gaming revenue averaged approximately MOP 633 million per day, marking a 4% year-on-year increase yet falling 10% below the daily average for August 2026. The firm holds a neutral outlook on Macau gaming stocks, as the year-on-year growth is counterbalanced by a relatively low comparison base.

The report highlights that month-to-date mass market and VIP gaming revenues have decreased by 10% to 12% and 8% to 10%, respectively, on a sequential basis, with win rates ranging between 3.0% and 3.3%—above the normal threshold. Market consensus and Jefferies' own projections anticipate September gaming revenue to expand by 9.5% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, primarily driven by the low base effect. Notably, last year's September 23-24 period saw a 33-hour suspension of operations due to a typhoon. September stands out as one of the most favorable comparison bases for the remainder of the year, leading market expectations for a return to revenue growth.

Jefferies points out that as premium mass market clientele continues to fuel market expansion, the focus remains on operators with a proven track record in this segment, namely Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Wynn.

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