Analysts at ITC Markets suggest that the US 10-year Treasury yield could potentially climb to 5.1%, a level not seen since July 2007, should the Federal Reserve show any signs of hesitation regarding interest rate increases.

Senior analyst Kit Lowe, based in Sydney, noted an interesting dynamic: if inflation data ultimately forces the Fed's hand to raise rates, it could paradoxically provide a positive boost for longer-duration bonds.

However, the persistent structural trend of increased US debt issuance continues to cast a significant shadow over the market, a factor that cannot be easily dismissed.

Lowe elaborated that if the central bank appears indecisive on the path of monetary tightening, yields on the 10-year note could break above the 5% threshold. He added that long-duration bond investors would likely prefer the Fed to act on rate hikes now, aiming to prevent inflation from escalating further, as rising inflation typically exerts a more substantial negative impact on longer-term maturities.