Campbell's Co. stock is tumbling after its earnings report and dividend cut, becoming the latest consumer staples stock that's not living up to its safe-haven reputation. That might not change any time soon.
Campbell delivered an in-line fiscal fourth quarter, with earnings of 39 cents a share on revenue that fell nearly 8% year over year to $2.14 billion, matching analysts' estimates.
However, for the full year, Campbell expects to earn $1.65 to $1.80 a share, on revenue of roughly $9.35 billion to $9.55 billion; both top- and bottom-line guidance are below the consensus, which calls for earnings of $1.83 a share on revenue of $9.64 billion.
In addition, the company slashed its quarterly dividend by 36% to 25 cents a share, part of a larger cost-cutting strategy that also includes layoffs and plant closures as it struggles with weaker demand. "Our results remain unacceptable," CEO Mick Beekhuizen said. "Our performance is not where it needs to be, and we are taking decisive action to improve it."
Campbell stock fell nearly 10% on the news, putting it on pace for its largest percentage decrease since May 2018. The shares are now down 23% since the start of the year and have lost more than two-thirds of their value from their all-time closing high of $67.55 in July of 2016.
"We think the board was of the view three months ago that they could improve the company's balance sheet through refinancing rather than a dividend cut," writes TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow. "The strong performance of Conagra's stock post their dividend cut and the necessity of deeper investment may have helped change their mind."
Campbell's stock is just one of the packaged-food companies dealing with falling sales. In fact, the staples sector as a whole has been a laggard: The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sect SPDR exchange-traded fund is up just under 6% over the past 12 months and about 17% over the past five years. In contrast, the S&P 500 is up some 20% and 70% over the same periods. Aside from concerns about lower snack demand due to GLP-1 usage and shrinkflation that's turned off consumers, investors have had less use for a sector whose reputation includes steady-eddy performance and higher dividend payouts during the current bull market, when interest rates have remained higher than they were during the pandemic era.
Staples haven't trailed the broader market by as wide a margin in 2026, with the staples ETF up nearly 10% to the S&P 500's 13% gain. Nonetheless, the end of August saw staples fall behind the index again, marking the end of two straight weeks of relative outperformance.
UBS analyst Peter Grom says this is a result of more muted investor sentiment amid a lack of catalysts for the sector, and renewed worries about additional tariff burdens. "Although inbound interest has picked up around several of the more beaten up names in the space, we have yet to see convincing signs that growth is broadening across the sector," he writes.
It might be hard to escape that pattern if history is any guide. Grom looked at staples' performance vis-a-vis the S&P 500 going back to the year 2000 and found that the staples ETF has outperformed the index during August about half of the time, but subsequently struggled.
"In most years Staples underperform through the balance of the year almost irrespective of August performance," he writes. "However, in the years where Staples underperformed in August, that weakness has persisted through the balance of the year the majority of the time. Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the consumer backdrop, evolving tariff dynamics, and volatility across key commodity markets, it is difficult to see a catalyst in the near-term that would spark a meaningful shift in sentiment and would not be surprised if 2026 marked another year where this trend continued."
There have been exceptions to the rule, like Coca-Cola, which is up a market-beating 27% in 2026. But overall, staples stocks are facing stiff headwinds, and investors might not have much appetite for them.