Nobody Knows Anything, Rate Expectations Edition

The Big Picture

Sep 05

Heading out the door for the Labor Day weekend, with blue skies and 85° temperatures, I had to share a chart. It’s from the San Francisco Federal Reserve (via Torsten Slok of Apollo) and shows Wall ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

{"basename":"","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - Tiger Brokers","title":"Tiger Brokers HK | Online Trading in stocks, bonds & ETFS","description":"Discover Tiger Brokers HK, an online trading platform for stocks&ETFs, options&futures, bonds and crypto. Open an account to enjoy low commission trading today!","keywords":"tiger trading,tiger security,tiger broker hk,tigers co ltd,tiger trade hk,tiger brokers hk,stock broker,securities broker,online brokerage,hong kong broker,hk broker,online stock trading,online trading platform,stock trading platforms,trading application,stock trading,stock trading hong kong,buying stocks in hong kong,tiger brokers","social":{"ogDescription":"Discover Tiger Brokers HK, an online trading platform for stocks&ETFs, options&futures, bonds and crypto. Open an account to enjoy low commission trading today!","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.0a0bd8dc.png","ogUrl":"https://www.atigreclipse.com/news/2665352052"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"HKG","license":"TBHK","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2665352052\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2665352052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Rate-exoectations.png","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-09-05 01:47","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2665352052","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Nobody Knows Anything, Rate Expectations Edition","media":"The Big Picture","content":"<div>\n<p>Heading out the door for the Labor Day weekend, with blue skies and 85° temperatures, I had to share a chart. It’s from the San Francisco Federal Reserve (via Torsten Slok of Apollo) and shows Wall ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://ritholtz.com/2026/09/nobody-knows-anything-rate-expectations-edition/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"ritholtz_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nobody Knows Anything, Rate Expectations Edition</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNobody Knows Anything, Rate Expectations Edition\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-05 01:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://ritholtz.com/2026/09/nobody-knows-anything-rate-expectations-edition/><strong>The Big Picture</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Heading out the door for the Labor Day weekend, with blue skies and 85° temperatures, I had to share a chart. It’s from the San Francisco Federal Reserve (via Torsten Slok of Apollo) and shows Wall ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://ritholtz.com/2026/09/nobody-knows-anything-rate-expectations-edition/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"EQRR","symbol_name":"ProShares Equities for Rising Rates ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://ritholtz.com/2026/09/nobody-knows-anything-rate-expectations-edition/","article_id":"2665352052","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Rate-exoectations.png"],"rights":{"source":"ritholtz_highlight","url":"https://ritholtz.com/2026/09/nobody-knows-anything-rate-expectations-edition/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2665352052","pubTimestamp":1788544049,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"ritholtz_highlight","name":"The Big Picture"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Heading out the door for the Labor Day weekend, with blue skies and 85° temperatures, I had to share a chart. It’s from the San Francisco Federal Reserve  and shows Wall Street expectations for Federal Reserve rate action.It’s the perfect explainer for why forecasts tend to be so inaccurate.As you can see, as recently as February 2026, market participants expected a series of ongoing rate hikes—a simple extrapolation from the prior trend.But the Middle Eastern adventure was promised to be short and indeed already over, so the next set of expectations were flat. A few months later, the “short military operation” turned into a war; inflation remained sticky, and expectations were for modestly higher rates.Now we are six months into a war that shows no signs of ending, voters are angry, and a bad actor is in control of the Strait of Hormuz, with the likelihood of an ongoing tax on Middle Eastern oil. Once again, expectations were adjusted upwards, and now we see “higher for longer” as the","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"ritholtz.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"EQRR":"ProShares Equities for Rising Rates ETF"},"translate_title":"没人知道任何事情，评分期望版","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EQRR":0.61},"content_text":"Heading out the door for the Labor Day weekend, with blue skies and 85° temperatures, I had to share a chart. It’s from the San Francisco Federal Reserve (via Torsten Slok of Apollo) and shows Wall Street expectations for Federal Reserve rate action.\nIt’s the perfect explainer for why forecasts tend to be so inaccurate.\nAs you can see, as recently as February 2026, market participants expected a series of ongoing rate hikes—a simple extrapolation from the prior trend.\nThen the war began sending food and energy prices higher.\nBut the Middle Eastern adventure was promised to be short and indeed already over, so the next set of expectations were flat. A few months later, the “short military operation” turned into a war; inflation remained sticky, and expectations were for modestly higher rates.\nNow we are six months into a war that shows no signs of ending, voters are angry, and a bad actor is in control of the Strait of Hormuz, with the likelihood of an ongoing tax on Middle Eastern oil. Once again, expectations were adjusted upwards, and now we see “higher for longer” as the consensus.\nUnless, of course, something else unanticipated occurs…\nForecasts are for the most part simple extrapolations of the status quo or the current trend; they also fail to include random or unanticipated events – the kind that happens all the time in the economy, markets, and geopolitics.\nWhen you stumble across a forecast that turned out to be more or less correct, it usually means nothing happened, and the extrapolation proved to be randomly correct.1 \nBut most of the time, $h*t happens: wars break out, Pandemics occur, terror attacks happen, new technology comes along and fails or succeeds, and governments fail to fund their annual budgets or wildly overspend their fiscal limits.\nThe parade of endless random events derails even the most thoughtful of predictions. A year is simply too short a time to guarantee that the dominant secular trend asserts itself, and too long a period to avoid random events.\nPreviously:\nThe Folly of Forecasting (June 7, 2005)\nNobody Knows Anything (Archive)\nSource:\nProductivity -Driven Growth Confronts Elevated Inflation\nHuiyu Li\nFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, September 3, 2026\n__________\n1. Please note that I said randomly correct — that is not he same as being prescient.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}