Lululemon Stock Has Plunged. Why it Faces a Long Road to Recovery.

Dow Jones
Sep 05

No matter how Zen an investor might be, it's hard to be hopeful in the face of a stock's double-digit drop, particularly when it pushes shares below $100 for the first time since 2018.

Little wonder then that so many Lululemon Athletica investors are throwing in the towel.

The yoga and athletic wear maker reported fiscal second-quarter results that were disappointing in nearly every way, with its revenue, comparable sales, third-quarter and full-year forecast coming in below expectations. The shares were initially down more than 20% in premarket trading on Friday, before falling 18.6% to $99.10.

The stock is on track for its biggest decrease in a year, and has lost more than half its value since the start of 2026 alone.

The downbeat report comes after its previous results also missed consensus estimates, sending the shares tumbling; at the time, Barron's warned that they were still no bargain, and that still looks to be the case, even with the day's big selloff.

It might seem overly pessimistic to warn of more declines to come. After all, 2026 was widely seen as a "reset" year, when painful changes made under new leadership would need to work their way through the stock, in order for it to emerge stronger later.

Yet the timeline for that process remains long and murky.

Consider that even with the newly reduced guidance, there could still be risk. As Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton notes, the fourth quarter forecast implies gross margins inflecting to a year-over-year expansion, with selling, general and administrative expenses declining-reversing recent increases.

That could prove "overly optimistic...especially considering the highly promotional broader sportswear backdrop," Straton wrote. That leads her to reiterate an underweight rating and $83 price target on the shares.

Incoming Chief Executive Officer Heidi O'Neill was already a show-me story for many on Wall Street, as she comes from struggling sportswear giant Nike, and after the most recent results has more work ahead of her when she starts next week. And even the most visionary CEO can do little to speed up the product cycle.

Barclays' Adrienne Yih writes that Lululemon is at the 'Trap' phase of her firm's proprietary sales cycle model, "where fundamentals are deteriorating as competition in all categories remains stiff and pricing power is fleeting for its core franchises. As market share erodes, the lack of sales is causing operating deleverage...management's strategy is on the defensive-meaning actions are being taken to change business trends, but the issues have not yet stabilized."

She lowered her price target to $95 from $113.

Likewise, UBS analyst Jay Sole warns of further earnings per share declines ahead if that operating deleverage continues.

Lululemon's EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) margin has already fallen by more than 1000 basis points in the last two years, meaning it's now low enough that "further declines will have a much more sizable negative impact on earnings. The lower a company's margin, the more impactful it is to EPS when it contracts," Sole wrote.

His research shows that even if the company could cut out all discounting, that still wouldn't push EBIT margins back toward prior peaks-that can only come with true sales growth. That's a major reason "why the pullback isn't a reason to buy the stock."

At some point, that will change. But for now, sentiment on the stock is likely to remain sour.

 

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10