Many consumer and travel-oriented stocks have been hit hard over the past month, including TJX, Carnival, American Airlines, and Booking Holdings, and that could signal a weakening economy.
Some stocks-including Casey's General Stores-are down 20% or more since mid August, against a 2% decline for the S&P 500 index and a 7% decline for the broad VanEck Retail exchange-traded fund (Ticker RTH), which hit a high for the year on Aug. 11.
Some of the stock declines reflect company-specific issues, but there could be broader concerns at play. Investors are worried that higher gasoline prices, now averaging over $4 a regular gallon, and increased food and other costs are crimping consumers, particularly those with lower incomes.
Gas prices are going higher, with oil up over 20% in the past month to more than $100 a barrel, based on the Brent crude benchmark. Consumer spending has been buoyed by the affluent, whose stock portfolios have grown with the bull market. If stocks hit the skids, high-end consumers could pull back.
A bunch of consumer stocks hit new 52-week lows Thursday, including off-price leader TJX, Carnival and Lowe's.
The home-building sector also has been weak as 30-year mortgage rates move up toward 7%. The rate rose 0.05 percentage points in the latest week to 6.76% according to the latest Freddie Mac survey. Higher mortgage rates are chilling a sector already depressed by affordability and other factors.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF was down 2.3% Thursday to $88.22 and was trading within a few percentage points of its 52-week low. No. 2 home builder Lennar was off 3.5% Thursday to $77.90 after hitting a new 52-week low.
Lennar now trades below its book value after declining 25% this year, one of the worst showing among the big builders. The largest home builder, D.R. Horton, was off 2.4% to $135.57 Thursday and was just above its 52-week low.
The home builder selloff Thursday was keyed off Treasury bond market, which is having one of its worst selloffs of the year. The Treasury 10-year note yield is up over a tenth of percentage point to 4.95%, near its hig42yield reached in 2023.
Among notable consumer stocks, TJX was up 0.2% to $126.42 Thursday, but it's down 25% from its high of $170 set in June. Carnival, a leader in the cruise-line industry, was off 1% Thursday to $22.47, while Lowe's, one of the two leading home-improvement retailers along with Home Depot, was down 1% to $196.59.
Looking over the past month, these consumer stocks are down over 20%: Dick's Sporting Goods, Burlington Stores, Tapestry, Casey's General Stores, ON Holding, Yeti, Lululemon, Restoration Hardware and Birkenstock Holding.
There's a long list of losers and there may be bargains in the group. The price action also doesn't bode well for the consumer and the economy.