Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1038 ET - European energy producers and insurance companies are likely to benefit due to the elevated energy prices and the European Central Bank decision to increase interest rates, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.5% during Thursday's policy decision, as markets expected. Sectors that could be negatively affected by the rate increase include property, housebuilders, smaller companies, and retailers, she says. "Banks may benefit initially from wider lending margins, but that advantage will fade if loan demand weakens and defaults rise." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0747 ET - Betting against eurozone banks should help protect investors against market stress stemming from the French presidential election in 2027, Bank of America analysts write. The Europe Stoxx Banks index will likely fall if French political risk resurfaces via poll gains for populist parties on the left and right, they say. The index is vulnerable to a widening in yields between French OATs and German Bunds, they say. Investors should also bet on stock-market volatility rising around the time of the election itself, they say. Dispersion between different European bank stocks will also rise in the event of a populist party appearing on track to gain power, they say. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0500 ET - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields isn't driven by fears of runaway inflation, Ethenea Independent Investors' Joerg Held says. The yield spread between conventional and inflation-protected 30-year securities has remained stable at 2.2% for four years, the head of portfolio management says. "Consequently, the market firmly expects inflation to return to the central bank's target level," he says. However, caution remains advisable regarding U.S. Treasurys and the dollar in light of impending policy interventions, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0457 ET - Malaysia's Budget 2027 is likely to balance near-term household support with longer-term economic transformation, RHB senior economist Chin Yee Sian says in a note. Targeted support for vulnerable households may continue, while resources will be separately allocated for certain "strategic" industries. The Budget is likely to prioritize semiconductors, AI, digitalization, aerospace, renewable energy and high-value manufacturing. The fiscal deficit target could remain at around 3.5% of GDP, with growth forecast at 4.9% in 2027. The government expects 2026 growth to come in at 5.4% and for 2027 inflation to remain contained at 1.9% following an estimated 2.1% in 2026.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0239 ET - The U.S. dollar falls slightly alongside slightly lower oil prices and Treasury yields, awaiting input from Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI data for August. "Despite higher energy prices and firm short-dated U.S. interest rates, the dollar remains soft," ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The fact that the dollar is not stronger may be attributable to both the investment environment and to developments in the U.S. dollar-Japanese yen currency pair, the global head of markets says. The DXY index falls 0.1% to 98.738. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0221 ET - Recruit Holdings' share price is yet to reflect profit growth at its Indeed jobs site, Nomura's Jiyong Oum says in a research report. The brokerage likes its prospects, citing sustainable and strong profit growth at Indeed. Nomura expects Indeed's monetization to progress to successful hires from referrals, forecasting 'EBITA+S' for the Japanese company's HR technology segment to rise around four-fold over the next five years. Increased adoption of its premium services among small and medium-sized enterprises is seen to be the main driver. Nomura raises the stock's target price to 20,000 yen from Y18,500 with an unchanged buy rating. Shares are 2.4% higher at Y15,670. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2214 ET - The Bank of Japan is likely to accelerate the pace of rate increases to deal with upside risks in inflation, but probably not as fast as some market participants anticipate, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities economists say. The brokerage expects the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 1.25% from 1.00% next week and projects another 25bp increase in January 2027. Some forecast a 50bp increase next week or additional increases in October and December. Yet, it is difficult for the central bank to build a case for a 50bp increase, considering recent economic and inflation data and market conditions, the brokerage says. Uncertainty has risen again over the Middle East conflict and downside risks to the Japanese economy have also increased, the brokerage adds.

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