Europe is acting unusually. Faced with its second energy crisis in four years, you would think countries would be doing everything in their power to have proper provisions for winter. Instead, the region is about to head into the colder months with the lowest levels of natural gas in storage in 15 years.

It is a sign that some governments in Europe are willing to roll the dice on what happens next in energy markets rather than repeat mistakes made back in 2022. That could help keep already high gas prices in check.

But, if Europe has miscalculated and needs to turn to the spot market for more supplies later this year, U.S. exporters of liquefied natural gas will profit from higher prices. And some European economies could suffer.

Currently, Europe's natural gas tanks are 67% full, which is 13 percentage points lower than a year ago. One reason storage is so low is that European buyers were hoping the Strait of Hormuz would be open by now, and that Qatari LNG would be back on the market. This would push down prices and allow Europe to inject more gas into storage at the last minute.

That hasn't happened. Even so, the European Union put out a statement last week saying low stockpiles of natural gas are nothing to worry about. It said Europe has diversified away from natural gas since the 2022 energy shock caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, so it doesn't need to hold as much inventory these days.

This has some truth to it. Demand for natural gas in winter is 17% lower now than it was in 2022, according to Wood Mackenzie. This is partly because renewable power now makes up a bigger share of Europe's energy mix.

But Europe is still cutting it close. Under Wood Mackenzie's most optimistic scenario, the region's storage levels could fall to 21% by April 1, 2027, which is the end of the heating season. This assumes that LNG shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates start flowing again soon and reach customers some time in November.

If the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for the rest of the year, Europe's storage levels could sink as low as 14% by next April.

Look closely at Europe's gas stockpiles and it is clear that some countries are gambling more than others. Portugal and Poland are leaving nothing to chance. Their gas inventories are more than 90% full. Germany and the Netherlands are languishing around 50%.

Germany was badly burned in the summer of 2022 when European natural-gas prices hit a record high. From June through October that year, the German market operator, TradingHub Europe, spent EUR8.7 billion-currently equivalent to $10.1 billion-buying gas to put into storage.

The gas was bought at peak prices and sold back into the market over the next two winters for an estimated total revenue of EUR2 billion. Buying high and selling low generated a EUR6.7 billion loss, according to Laurent Ruseckas, an executive director at S&P Global Energy. Most of the loss was ultimately passed on to gas users in Germany, with the state also picking up some of the tab.

The German government probably wants to avoid a repeat that would push extra costs on to businesses and consumers and trigger inflation. Spot prices for natural gas in Europe have already risen 75% since the end of June. A last-minute rush to stockpile for winter would send prices even higher.

The strategy is risky. Europe could exit the winter heating season with very low inventories. If LNG flows out of the Middle East still aren't back to normal by early next year, the EU faces a huge bill to refill nearly empty storage tanks in a tight market.

That would be good news for American LNG exporters such as Venture Global and Cheniere Energy. Venture Global, in particular, would benefit because it has high exposure to spot prices.

However, a strong El Niño weather system is expected to keep winter temperatures in the region higher than normal. This could depress demand, buying the EU a little more time to wait for LNG flows to return to normal.

Europe learned in 2022 that panicking during an energy crisis only sends prices soaring. This time it is hoping that keeping a cool head will pay off.