PPI Report Leaves a Rate Hike in Play

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Fed watchers are weighing whether the central bank will raise interest rates next week. They got another data point to mull over this morning: August's wholesale inflation report.

The producer-price report, which showed a pickup in inflation, matters because some of its data feed into the formula for the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Running the numbers, economists now mostly think that the core version of that index rose by 0.2% to 0.3% last month-too high, at this point, to rule out a rate hike from a central bank that wanted to see inflation cooling off this summer.

PCE estimates will get a more impactful update tomorrow morning, when analysts can enrich their forecasts with data from the August consumer-price index. But for now, this morning's update has upped the perceived odds of a rate increase on Wednesday. Bets in interest-rate futures markets reflect a 70% probability of a rate hike, up from 60% before the data came out.

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