Fed Set to Tighten Despite Weak Rate-Hike Case

Dow Jones
Yesterday

0125 GMT - The Fed's upcoming decision looks less clear-cut to Goldman Sachs' U.S. economics team than market pricing implies. GS doesn't see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate, continuing to view the overshoot of the 2% inflation target as attributable to one-time factors. Limited rate hikes are unlikely to appreciably offset the inflationary impact of supply shocks, the economy isn't overheated, and inflation expectations are at most modestly elevated and not at immediate risk of unanchoring. Still, GS suspects most FOMC participants will worry about the potential reaction to not delivering a hike that Fed communication has guided the market to almost fully price in. It now calls for a 25bp hike in September versus a hold previously. Additional hikes later are possible but not its baseline view.

 

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