3 ETFs to Own-and 3 to Avoid-if Interest Rates Keep Rising

Dow Jones
4 hours ago

Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates Wednesday and the 10-Year Treasury yield briefly topped the psychologically important 5% milestone on Monday.

And while rising rates can pressure stocks by boosting borrowing costs and making higher-yielding bonds more attractive, that doesn't mean you have to shun all stocks.

There are ETFs, in fact, that own interest-rate hike winners, including metals miners, crypto companies and big tech stocks. Those are sectors that global equity strategists at JPMorgan believe can hold up relatively well if the Fed puts in place one or two small rate increases over the next few months, what they describe as a "shallow hiking cycle."

The JPMorgan strategists ran a screen to identify what they called "debasement outperformers"-companies that have more exposure to alternative assets like commodities and cryptocurrencies, as well as less sensitivity to higher Treasury yields. These are stocks that have been going up since June.

Miners have been rallying thanks to surging prices for copper, gold and silver in the past few months. The combination of concerns about tightening supply conditions and the expected demand for metals needed for the construction of data centers (particularly copper for wiring) has boosted metals.

As such, Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan, lithium miner Albemarle and rare earths company MP Materials all made JPMorgan's screen. A way for investors to play that? The VanEck Copper & Electrification ETF owns all four stocks among its top 20 holdings. The fund is up about 13.5% this year.

Bitcoin has enjoyed a solid rally over the past few months too, gaining nearly 25% since mid-June. Whether or not Bitcoin and cryptos continue to rally is anybody's guess, especially with the U.S. Senate set to vote Tuesday on whether to advance the Clarity Act, a stalled bill that is viewed by many as being crypto-friendly.

But JPMorgan's screen identified several crypto companies on its debasement winners list, including Coinbase, Robinhood, Bullish, and Circle Internet. Cathie Wood's ARK Next Generation internet ETF owns all four. The fund has lagged behind the broader market this year, rising just 7% compared with the S&P 500's 11% gain. But it has momentum as of late, rallying 12% over the past three months versus an increase of only 3% for the blue chips.

The Magnificent Seven has been the Lagnificent Seven for much of this year but sentiment may be shifting back in favor of the tech giants. Amazon.com, Microsoft and Nvidia all made JPMorgan's list of debasement outperformers and the strategists pointed out in their report that "demand for compute capacity has been incredibly strong and hyperscaler margins are almost double that of the S&P 500."

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, while obviously a concentrated bet, remains the easiest way for investors to gain exposure to Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft (as well as Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Tesla.) The fund is up 8% over the past three months.

But what about losers in a rising rate regime? Higher bond yields could be bad news for consumers and the housing market. JPMorgan noted that several travel-related companies, such as Norwegian Cruise Lines, Viking Holdings, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts and airlines Southwest and Delta, have been laggards over the past three months.

The Invesco Leisure & Entertainment ETF, which has a big stake in Viking as well as several hotel stocks, is down 2% in the past three months. And the U.S. Global Jets ETF, which owns most major airline stocks, has fallen 4% since mid-June.

Interest rate-sensitive companies such as home builders Lennar, D.R. Horton, PulteGroup and Toll Brothers, have tumbled too as bond yields have crept higher. The State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, which owns all four stocks, is down 4% this year and 8% over the past three months.

Fed hikes won't necessarily derail the entire bull market. But investors will need to pick and choose their spots carefully. A look at how the market has behaved over the past three months provides some clues about winners and losers in a higher for longer rate environment.

 

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